(This is a tremendous effort and a model for all future redistricting diaries, of which I’m sure we can expect many in the coming years – promoted by DavidNYC)
After reading Duffman’s excellent diary on redistricting New Jersey, I thought I’d take a crack at a 12-seat map. (I had done a 13-seat map awhile back, but it’s not nearly as exciting.) Unlike Duffman, though, I’m horribly shameless and did this without any intent of compactness, which I think will become readily obvious. My goal was to squeeze as many Democratic districts out as possible, while still conforming to the VRA.
I think I pretty much pulled out all the tricks in the book, while keeping Democratic incumbents in their home districts (although, seriously, Frank Pallone, get the f— out of Long Branch – you are singlehandedly responsible for half the ugliness of NJ districts). In the end, we get a 10-2 Democratic map, one where no Democratic district was less than 54% Obama at that. Maps, summary statistics, and more sardonic commentary over the flip.
To start, I used this map of Obama’s performance. Red/blue are obvious. Lightest shade is a margin of less than 5%, then 5-10, 10-20, and above 20. There’s a corresponding map for average margin from 2004-2006 (2008 hadn’t happened when I did the 13-seat map), which averages Kerry, Corzine, and Menendez’s margins.
So going district by district, here’s what we’ve got (for statistics, I also have raw vote totals, but I don’t think that’s as important here. The numbers here, in order, are: Population, Obama%, McCain%, Kerry%, Bush% in 2004.
| NJ-01 | 700,792 | 59.95% | 38.78% | 55.24% | 43.14% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlington | 42,275 | 54.34% | 44.75% | 49.67% | 49.45% | |
| Camden | 321,832 | 68.25% | 30.55% | 62.34% | 35.65% | |
| Cumberland | 17,727 | 45.73% | 52.68% | 42.55% | 55.71% | |
| Gloucester | 254,673 | 55.41% | 43.27% | 51.98% | 46.68% | |
| Salem | 64,285 | 51.16% | 47.24% | 45.91% | 52.49% |
Bottom line is, I don’t like Rob Andrews. I think what he pulled with his seat after challenging Lautenberg is pure BS, and I don’t think you’ll find me shedding any tears if he suddenly disappeared off the political stage. With that in mind, I tried to make his district less Camden-centric. It incorporates the entirety of Gloucester and Salem counties, along with the Republican parts of Salem. Camden proper and Andrews’ home in Haddon Heights is still here, but with the inclusion of Evesham Township in Burlington County, this district is majority not-Camden County. Obama ran just shy of 60%, Kerry got 55% – enough for a staunch Dem district.
| NJ-02 | 701,012 | 54.01% | 44.76% | 49.02% | 49.20% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic | 252,552 | 56.98% | 41.92% | 52.01% | 46.17% | |
| Burlington | 57,222 | 51.51% | 47.15% | 45.90% | 52.66% | |
| Camden | 68,660 | 65.10% | 33.72% | 58.79% | 39.37% | |
| Cape May | 102,326 | 45.03% | 53.68% | 41.97% | 56.35% | |
| Cumberland | 128,711 | 62.67% | 36.01% | 53.99% | 43.80% | |
| Ocean | 91,541 | 42.47% | 56.18% | 41.02% | 57.50% |
I think there’s a lot of untapped potential in NJ-02, and we never seem to be able to capitalize. Unfortunately, with the slower population growth, this district has to expand northward. This district contains all of Atlantic and Cape May counties, and the parts of Cumberland not in the NJ-01. I’d like to think the split worked, given that Obama earned 62% in the NJ-02 part of Cumberland, while only 45% in the 1st. Throw in a bit of Ocean County, an arm into Camden, and some of Burlington including Democratic Pemberton, and you get a 54% Obama district. Kerry only narrowly lost here. Frank LoBiondo’s home in Ventnor City remains.
| NJ-03 | 700,563 | 57.30% | 41.64% | 52.45% | 46.00% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlington | 323,897 | 60.57% | 38.42% | 54.38% | 44.36% | |
| Camden | 118,440 | 67.38% | 31.74% | 61.81% | 36.30% | |
| Mercer | 97,384 | 53.76% | 44.74% | 48.51% | 49.04% | |
| Monmouth | 160,842 | 45.86% | 53.14% | 44.21% | 54.44% |
In my mind, there’s no point in dragging NJ-03 out to the Jersey shore, forcing it to pick up some nasty bits of Ocean County. (Packing and cracking, holler.) So this district pretty much runs diagonally up the state. Burlington is the center of population, but John Adler’s home of Cherry Hill (along with other Camden municipalities) stay in. Instead of touching Ocean County, it instead grabs some of the somewhat less-Republican Monmouth County – including Freehold and Marlboro Townships. On balance, you get a 57% Obama district – a big improvement over the 52% Obama scored in the current 3rd.
| NJ-04 | 701,196 | 41.36% | 57.44% | 39.28% | 59.41% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth | 281,821 | 43.94% | 54.88% | 40.72% | 57.87% | |
| Ocean | 419,375 | 39.59% | 59.18% | 38.25% | 60.50% |
Well, the Republicans have to go somewhere, and this district is it. I tried to string together the most Republican parts of Ocean and Monmouth, and this strip running up the Jersey shore is what you get. I probably could have done a better job in Monmouth by pulling out some of the Democratic municipalities like Red Bank and given them to NJ-06, but that would have messed up the Middlesex districting. I take pride in that both Republican districts had Kerry scoring less than 40%, and Obama getting no more than 42%. I know that technically, Christopher Smith’s house in Hamilton Township is in Mercer County, but eh, I have no reservations against drawing Republicans out.
| NJ-05 | 701,447 | 41.91% | 57.04% | 38.55% | 60.20% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen | 263,780 | 45.31% | 53.99% | 42.60% | 56.43% | |
| Hunterdon | 34,314 | 37.74% | 60.96% | 35.30% | 63.95% | |
| Morris | 160,430 | 40.90% | 58.12% | 37.20% | 61.68% | |
| Passaic | 39,672 | 42.86% | 56.00% | 39.16% | 58.74% | |
| Somerset | 17,858 | 39.70% | 59.09% | 36.21% | 62.47% | |
| Sussex | 144,166 | 38.86% | 59.61% | 34.39% | 63.95% | |
| Warren | 41,227 | 37.54% | 60.73% | 33.73% | 64.40% |
The other Republican district around here. Again, I tried to pack as much nastiness into this one district, and I think I mostly succeeded. This district takes in all of Sussex County. Originally, all of Warren and more of Morris county were going to go in, but I realized through some creative “tentacling,” this district could grab out some of the less-hospitable bits of Bergen (maintaining the Democratic performance in Steve Rothman’s district) without endangering Rush Holt. Hence the tentacles into Morris, Somerset, and Hunterdon. I think this also shows the relatively larger swing that Obama got in Northwest Jersey, as Obama did better here than in NJ-04, while Kerry did worse. Yes, Scott Garrett’s home in Wantage Township is still here.
| NJ-06 | 701,196 | 59.74% | 39.16% | 54.99% | 43.59% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex | 528,558 | 60.70% | 38.18% | 56.15% | 42.44% | |
| Monmouth | 172,638 | 56.85% | 42.09% | 51.65% | 46.89% |
When looking at the Presidential results, I realized that Plainfield, at 93% Obama (!!), was part of what was anchoring the Democratic performance here. This was putting a crimp in my plans for NJ-07, so I tried to keep the performance here up without Plainfield. The fact that this had to reach around large swaths of Monmouth County though, was a challenge. I thought Obama performed less well in the Monmouth part of the district (anchored in Asbury Park and Long Branch), but at 57%, no one’s complaining. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, which is along the shore (…seriously, move.) Staunchly Republican Middletown Township was getting in the way, along with roughly 50-50 Old Bridge. Luckily, the Brunswicks – New, North, East, and South – were happy to oblige, leaving Obama just shy of 60% here. Yes, this district is contiguous – just ask Sea Bright and Keansburg.
| NJ-07 | 701,196 | 54.72% | 44.38% | 50.16% | 48.63% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex | 47,156 | 57.44% | 41.79% | 54.67% | 44.35% | |
| Morris | 288,943 | 48.47% | 50.61% | 44.13% | 54.77% | |
| Somerset | 37,073 | 54.11% | 44.83% | 48.31% | 50.39% | |
| Union | 328,024 | 60.09% | 39.03% | 55.29% | 43.37% |
I had designed an old 7th district for Linda Stender awhile ago (when I thought she was going to win), so I made sure to keep Scotch Plains in this district. I also thought we were letting Democratic votes go to waste in Morristown, so I strung the two together. Because of the increased population requirement in going from 13 to 12 districts, this district takes in more bits of Essex and Somerset counties than before, but Obama’s solid 60% in the Plainfield-Westfield-Scotch Plains-Union Township anchor keeps this district at 55% Obama. Incidentally, Rod Frelinghuysen’s home in Harding Township gets placed here.
| NJ-08 | 701,196 | 60.86% | 38.29% | 55.30% | 42.01% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen | 61,390 | 51.07% | 47.79% | 49.93% | 48.66% | |
| Essex | 190,429 | 60.72% | 38.45% | 56.20% | 42.48% | |
| Passaic | 449,377 | 62.62% | 36.57% | 55.75% | 40.59% |
There are some good Democratic votes in Essex County that I didn’t want to all pack into Donald Payne’s district, so this is where they went. Added is Southern Passaic County, especially the very Democratic cities of Passaic, Clifton, and Paterson (where Bill Pascrell lives, incidentally). Also to relieve pressure on Steve Rothman, this district takes in four municipalities in Southwest Bergen County. You get a 61% Obama district, a few points shy of the current 8th, but Pascrell will survive.
| NJ-09 | 701,092 | 61.06% | 38.12% | 58.07% | 40.82% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen | 558,948 | 60.20% | 39.00% | 57.47% | 41.42% | |
| Hudson | 142,144 | 65.42% | 33.65% | 61.18% | 37.71% |
This district, I think, changes the least from the current configuration. It keeps most of southern Bergen county. I would specify the municipalities that form the core, but I think the heuristic ‘towns in which you’re stuck in traffic on 95 before the Bridge” works well enough. It does reach a bit farther north than before, hitting the New York state line, and also south into Secaucus and Kearny in Hudson County – so basically, all of I-95 north of the Turnpike split and the Meadowlands. Fair Lawn – Steve Rothman’s residence – remains in this 61% Obama district.
| NJ-10 | 702,254 | 81.68% | 17.82% | 75.29% | 23.51% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex | 556,048 | 85.36% | 14.20% | 79.00% | 19.85% | |
| Morris | 20,839 | 41.17% | 58.11% | 40.02% | 58.96% | |
| Union | 125,367 | 74.68% | 24.55% | 67.38% | 31.10% |
The current NJ-10 and NJ-13 I always thought had unnecessary encroachments on each other, and this configuration cleaves Newark and Jersey City into separate districts. Obviously, this is centered on Newark (Donald Payne’s residence), which has about 40% of the district’s population. Also included are the Oranges, and a branch to hit Roselle Park through Elizabeth. I didn’t want too much Democratic goodness in Union and Essex to go here, so it reaches northwest from Newark to hit the nasty parts (Essex Fells, Fairfield, etc) and has a township in Morris County included for good measure. By my calculations, this district is 47.5% African-American and another 23% Hispanic/Latino, which should satisfy the VRA as a ‘coalition’ district. At 82% Democratic, this is the most Democratic in New Jersey.
| NJ-11 | 701,196 | 71.82% | 27.28% | 65.06% | 32.83% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson | 466,831 | 75.11% | 24.05% | 67.87% | 29.70% | |
| Middlesex | 165,215 | 63.55% | 35.40% | 57.75% | 40.80% | |
| Union | 69,150 | 69.92% | 29.19% | 64.98% | 33.36% |
Renumbered from the 13th, this district is centered on Jersey City and Bayonne. It also includes Hoboken and Albio Sires’ home in West New York. Going south, it goes through Elizabeth and Linden in Union county to Carteret, Woodbridge, and Perth Amboy in Middlesex. This district is 42% Hispanic and another 15% African-American, which again should satisfy the VRA. I think that’s why the current NJ-10 and 13 interfere so much, so that the majority-Black areas in Jersey City are included in the 10th and the predominantly Hispanic areas in Newark are kept in the 13th. Either way, 72% Obama, no worries.
| NJ-12 | 701,210 | 57.88% | 40.96% | 52.16% | 45.83% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunterdon | 87,675 | 44.55% | 54.01% | 40.60% | 58.30% | |
| Mercer | 253,377 | 73.71% | 25.25% | 65.18% | 31.40% | |
| Middlesex | 56,389 | 52.76% | 46.22% | 52.35% | 46.34% | |
| Somerset | 242,559 | 53.30% | 45.60% | 47.92% | 50.70% | |
| Warren | 61,210 | 45.94% | 52.46% | 40.12% | 58.17% |
Unquestionably, this is the district I’m most proud of. The current map was designed to help Rush Holt, and he does happen to be one of the Congresspeople I like more than most. So I set out trying to draw a good district for him. Obviously, the Democratic strength would have to come from Mercer County. Trenton is currently split between NJ-04 and this one, but with NJ-04 out of the picture, all of 93% Obama Trenton can fit here. Throw in Hopewell, Princeton, and you get a 74% Obama section. To the North, this district basically carves out the less Republican parts of Hunterdon, Warren and Somerset, and I think this shows – Obama scored 45% in this district’s part of Hunterdon, 46% in Warren, and 53% in Somerset, as opposed to the 38% he got in the parts of Hunterdon and Warren in the 5th and 40% in Somerset. Rush Holt’s home in Hopewell Township is here (as is Leonard Lance’s residence in Clinton Township in Hunterdon). At 57.9% Obama, this is only a 0.20% drop from Holt’s current district. Oh and yes, it is contiguous.
So there you have it. Questions, comments?
If you want shapefiles, vote statistics, outline maps, please ask!
I’m a little bit concerned about the 7th and the 12th. I think what I might do is just concede the 7th to the Republicans, because Lance could probably win in your 7th as drawn anyway. Putting his house in Holt’s district just seems unnecessary.
Also, cracking Camden because you don’t like Bob Andrews just seems silly. You know he’ll win the primary in the district you draw for him too, right?
should pair Rod F with Garrett, and move his house out of the 7th. I would draw the 7th into Newark, which would make it significantly less attractive to Rod F.
New Jersey Congressional districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission, and they would never accept this map unless Dems win the 2nd and 7th district in 2010.
I especially like what you did with South Jersey (Districts 1-4).
Also, thanks for providing the red/blue township maps. I didn’t know there was still so much red in Bergen and Passaic.
Marylandesque. You should email this to some Democratic legislatures with the tag “Get to Work”.
Fwiw, four of the five NJ GOPers are moderates ranking among the top 16 in career Progressive Punch scores. That’s Chris Smith (23.32. 1st among Republicans). Frank LoBiondo (21.71, 7th), Leonard Lance (21.15,9th) and Rodney Frelinghuysen (16.32,16th). Garrett has a 3.98 and sinking.
Rob Andrews (81.93) is easily the most conservative Democrat. The city of Camden is in free fall, losing half its population and having the state take over the local government. We should have a fighting liberal there and we have a machine Dem on the verge of Blue Doggery who doesn’t get along , lies, etc.
Ideally, a new map would get rid of both Andrews and Garrett.
Rodney might give Rush Holt a very tough race in that new district. Seems like nearly half would be new to Rodney but even more for Holt. Better to match up two Republicans (Rodney and Garrett or Lance and Garrett).
The best I could come up with is:
Godzilla using a typewriter
and aggregating the population and political data for each census bloc, is there a quick and dirty way to draw maps like this?
I have no programming skills, but I wonder if there’s a way to integrating a districting tool with google maps? If it were as easy as playing the [Redistricting Game redistrictinggame.org/index.php?pg=game] I’m sure we could all come up with some interesting examples. The first person to draw a plausible national Democratic supermajority would get lots of cred.
Very, very impressive job. I wonder if you could do the same with neighboring New York and Pennsylvania ;). You definitely helped out Adler and put Lance in a tough spot (as I judge more on Kerry/Bush than Obama/McCain with a few exceptions of course). I wonder if the GOP could compete in Holt’s if it opened up under these lines. I was there for a couple weeks a few years back (visiting a friend), and almost moved there, too, and its definitely middle class suburbia. Luckily for the Dems it seems to be of the socially liberal variety. The kind youd see in the Philly suburbs and Long Island.
Why do you keep referencing the VRA? I’m not aware that any part of New Jersey is a jurisdiction that requires redistricting to take into account minority populations that have historically been deprived of their voting rights. There are states in the South that are required to have their redistricting approved by the Justice Department because they have been proven historically to have done so. But New Jersey??
In fact, openly drawing districts for the specific benefit of any ethnic or racial group that is not designated as a “protected class” (such as African-Americans or Latinos in some Southern states – but, believe it or not, not African-Americans everywhere in the U.S.) is considered unconstitutional. Your openly stated rationale would be grounds to challenge your redistricting proposal in court and would probably result in an open-and-shut case based on current Supreme Court rulings.
Also, the VRA does not recognize “coalition districts”, and I have been told that there is no successful court case that has recognized such a rationale for the purposes of invoking the VRA.
I strongly believe in the VRA and think it is one of the most important and significant pieces of civil rights legislation in our country’s history. But there is a lot of mythology out there about what it says and does not say, about what it does and does not do. Let’s not perpetuate that mythology here too.
I was wondering how you did this. Do you have a program or did you just do the math per district? I’m interested in doing this for MI. I know MI will lose a seat and has a couple of Republicans (Rogers and McCotter) that can be easily removed by unpacking Dems to make huge Democratic majority seats. Can you explain how you did this so I can try doing this for MI? I’ll post it on the site or email you it when its finished.
Thanks.
There are so many Republicans in vulnerable districts there and Democrats will likely have complete control over the redistricting process for the House seats.
He’d be hard to get rid of. One idea that’s tempting is to actually just shore up Gerlach, Holden, Pitts, and Schwartz.
The population loss probably means that the lost district has to come from the west.
You can see how things changed in 2002 here.
I should credit Polidata for that. They do a wonderful job.